This season was as unpredictable as any in recent memory in the NFL, as upsets seemed to be the norm week in and week out. Well, now the postseason has arrived. Will upsets continue in the second season? As a Ravens fan, I hope not.
No. 6 Cincinnati Bengals @ No. 3 Houston Texans
Saturday, January 5 4:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Pat's Pick: Bengals 20, Texans 23
The Texans looked nothing like the team that ran the NFL for weeks, losing three of their final four games. Granted those three losses were to playoff teams (New England, Minnesota, Indianapolis), the Texans are a team struggling to find an identity right now. Matt Schaub is struggling, the running game is struggling, that defense that could score on its own isn't scoring on their own. Basically, the Bengals are hot and caught the Texans at the best possible time.
Cincinnati may have played a Ravens team that was banged up and resting a lot of starters on Sunday, but that win coupled with beating Pittsburgh the week before no doubt gave this team confidence heading into a rematch of last year's playoffs. Last season, the Texans notched their first playoff win as a franchise. But the Bengals are motivated and gelling right now, and Andy Dalton played a whole different level this season.
If the Bengals lose, I think Marvin Lewis may lose his job, or will at least be on the hot seat in 2013. Unfortunately for Marv, I expect them to in a close one. Matt Schaub has been in the league for a while now, and I think he can turn this ship around. The Bengals are vulnerable in the secondary, and while Schaub is not the quarterback to throw for 450 yards on you, he is smart enough to make the plays necessary to win games and make few mistakes. The veteran will be the deciding factor here, as both run games are impressive and neither defense is dominant right now. The game stays close until the end when Schaub compiles a drive that ranks with the most impressive of his career to keep this 12 win team alive one more week.
No. 6 Minnesota Vikings @ No. 3 Green Bay Packers
Saturday, January 5 8:00 p.m. ET, NBC
Pat's Pick: Vikings 14, Packers 31
Saturday, January 5 8:00 p.m. ET, NBC
Pat's Pick: Vikings 14, Packers 31
There is zero, nada, no shot of the Vikings beating the Packers two weeks in a row. I am not even going to be open-minded about this and hear any arguments, because it is not happening. I am willing to bet my copy of Elvis Unplugged, an album where the King covers some mighty fine popular songs such as "Sweet Caroline", that the Vikings will fall to Aaron Rodgers and company on Saturday. I am guarandamnteeing it. I don't guarandamntee something everyday. I guarandamnteed that the Detroit Pistons would be a contender this season and I guarandamnteed that Josh Hamilton would end up in Philadelphia. Let's just say I'm due and move on.
The Vikings were playing for a shot at the playoffs in Week 17 and to break the rushing record on the heels of Adrian Peterson. Peterson was less than a first and 10 away, and the Vikings made the playoffs by beating the Packers in overtime. Green Bay didn't just shake that loss, they are remembering it and they are pissed off about it. Never bet against Aaron Rodgers, and NEVER bet against Aaron Rodgers two weeks in a row.
The VIkings are a good team, when they can run the ball not well, but inhumanly. If Peterson doesn't rush for 175 yards on Saturday, setting up the play action five yard passes from Christian Ponder, than Minnesota will lose by double digits. If he does rush for 175 yards, I still see them losing, just in a closer ball game. I just have trouble seeing past two things: 1) The Packers were arguably the hottest team in the league before they lost in a somewhat meaningless game last week (they needed San Francisco to lose to Brian"Headset" Hoyer and Atlanta to lose to Josh "I'm Still Here" Freeman to move up a seed) and 2) Aaron Rodgers would be the MVP again if it weren't for the robots installed in Peterson and Peyton Manning, and he has more weapons than ever before now that Greg Jennings seems healthy. Packers win this one, no doubt about it.
No. 5 Indianapolis Colts @ No. 4 Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, January 6 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Pat's Pick: Colts 16, Ravens 23
This pick hurts, because I am making it incredibly blindly, unrealistically optimistic and overwhelmingly biased. I know Baltimore's glory days are disappearing as we speak, the defense is old and the offensive line needs a makeover. The team needs to rebuild around someone other than Ray Lewis. Baltimore was 9-2 at one point, no matter how they got there, they were 9-2. Now they are 10-6 and playing a team led by a loveable coach(before he returned from fighting cancer) and a loveable rookie quarterback (who says all the right things and make things interesting with his 7 game winning drives this season). They are at home, they are technically "favorites" but they are counted out by almost everyone. No one thinks they are good enough or care enough to beat this inspired and motivated, young and talented Colts team. Except for me.
I haven't gone a day since Sunday without thinking about how this game could and will go. There are two scenarios:
Scenario A: Joe Flacco is inspired by what Ray Rice said about the playoffs being the norm now in Baltimore and wanting more. Flacco doesn't show drive, he does not display passion for winning. He shows it in this scenario and picks on the Colts somewhat vulnerable secondary. Rice is involved and the Ravens control the tempo, control the game and look like the old Ravens defense and force mistake after mistake from the rookie Andrew Luck. The Ravens easily win.
Scenario B: An ugly game where neither offense can move the ball. Both defenses are playing exceptionally, forcing turnovers and third downs. It seems as though whoever has the ball last and can even squeak out a field goal at the end will win. The problem with this scenario, is it is anyone's ball game and is also how I think this game will go.
Scenario B just seems like the likely case because most Ravens playoff games go this way. To decide who comes out on the winning side, I picked my favorite team who I live and die by. Sue me.
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks @ No. 4 Washington Redskins
Sunday, January 6 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Pat's Pick: Seahawks 28, Redskins 17
This game is the one I think most of the nation is waiting for, I know if my Ravens weren't in the playoffs, it would be the number one on my list. Seattle has been America's team this year behind the popular and exciting rookie Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. The Redskins have been led by America's quarterback, rookie sensation Robert Griffin III and another rookie stud Alfred Morris. Seattle doesn't lose at home, won't win on the road. Washington has won seven in a row coming into the postseason. Who breaks here?
It will come down defense. Seattle plays exceptional defense and plays the pass well. Washington looks at defense as more of a "just stop them sometimes, we can score 35!". That will be the difference. The Seahawks will make their shares of mistakes, but so will Washington. Both rookie quarterbacks will not be perfect like they were in the regular season. The playoffs are pretty new to both of these teams, as they aren't many pieces left from Seattle's run a few years ago, and the Redskins have not won the NFC East since 1999. It'll come down to who can make stops, force third downs and get more turnovers from the opposing rookie phenoms. This game will be so exciting and probably the best game to watch of the weekend to the casual fan. Seattle wins behind stingy defense and a slightly better run game.
Of course, for the gamblers in the club, go completely against all of these picks.
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