Have you ever been out to eat at a really nice restaurant? Hah, what am I saying, my fans are all wealthy and pompous pricks, of course you have! (I'm gonna try to insult all you guys like a boy who is mean to his crush in middle school, but know that I appreciate you all and I hope you enjoyed my personal Christmas cards from me this year) Did you find yourself pointing out all of the flaws of the place, despite it being regarded as some five-star, gorgeous institution for perfect cuisine? The food was too expensive. The service was worse than that found at Good Burger. The lights were so damn dim, how do they expect me to see my food, they probably poisoned it. The music they played went out of style centuries ago, unless you want to fall asleep, don't bother going there. The waiter was gay, I thought that was illegal.
I'm sure all of this has happened to someone at least once in their lives. For whatever reason, despite the restaurant being pretty damn close to flawless, all you find yourself doing is pointing out flaws, making for a pretty negative experience overall. This is how I would describe the Ravens game against the Colts on Sunday.
I really didn't find myself celebrating too many plays, despite the handful of awesome catches that Jerry Rice and David Tyree would have taken a back seat to and defense that was right down my alley. The defense was all pointing toward the movie that will be made about Ray Lewis someday, either 50 Shades of Ray or Rayminator. Take your pick.
But the bottom line is I was very negative during that whole game and did not enjoy it because I was so nervous about the Ravens losing. In all honesty, that describes this season for Baltimore perfectly. Expecting the worse even though its a good product. The Ravens won 10 games this season, you would think they won five with the outlook I had going into Sunday's game. This isn't me, I'm a glass half-full kind of guy. I saw The Code and fully expected it to be a classic.
Baltimore won handily, 24-9, over ChuckStrong and Andrew Luck. They made the Colts look like a team that was much worse than the season they put together. They looked like the 2000 Ravens defense and the offense looked like the same guys who led the league in scoring in the beginning of the season. Ray Lewis gave me goosebumps, Joe Flacco gave me laughs and Ray Rice gave me hope. This was the Baltimore team I knew and loved. And this is the Baltimore team who gave me my confidence in them back, and who will push me to probably picking them to beat Denver in this blog, and who drove me back to that five star restaurant despite leaving them a bad rating on restaurantsreview.com.
No. 4 Baltimore Ravens @ No. 1 Denver Broncos
Saturday, January 12 4:30 p.m. ET CBS
Pat's Pick: Ravens 24, Broncos 23
This confidence thing is controlling me right now. All of the reasons to pick the Broncos to not just win this game, but steamroll to the AFC Championship Game are staring at me in the face and making me uncomfortable. Baltimore can not beat Peyton Manning, especially in the playoffs. The Ravens can't stop the pass, something Denver kind of does exceptionally well. To clear any confusion, they defend the pass and pass...well. Baltimore already got steamrolled by Denver a few weeks ago, in Baltimore. This game is in Mile High. They were 7-1 at home this season, only losing to Houston all the way back in September, before they embarked on this 11 game winning streak. That's right, Denver hasn't lost since October 7 in New England.
But they have to lose some time, and why not this week, right? Right? Baltimore can be the Cinderella team for once. There seems to be that number one seed every season who ends up not benefiting from the week off and coming into this weekend cold and rusty, and finding themselves on the losing side. One and done. Why can't Peyton Manning be one and done, he's done it plenty of times before in the postseason.
So while this all might sound like wishful thinking, I actually have three legitimate reasons why the Ravens can win this game.
1) The Ray Lewis Effect- whether I like to admit it or not, I am a softy. Softee? However you'd like to spell it, but before you get out the dictionary, check out the Mr. Softee episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm. Especially if your team was just nixed from the playoffs. Or your New Years resolution fell through already. Or you saw This is 40. Trust me, just watch it.
Anyway, I was choked up watching the Ray Lewis stuff after the game last weekend. For as long as I've know the Ravens, I've known Ray Lewis. He has been the Ravens for me and has been football for so many more. He has been the leader of this team, of this city, for over a decade. His pump up speech gave me chills, his last dance in Baltimore gave me chills, even after the fourteenth time I watched it. Lewis being inserted on the final kneel down gave me chills. He gives me chills. He just does, and always will. His road should not end here, it should end in New Orleans. And if his teammates have any say in it, and believe me, they could not be anymore behind Ray, that road will end there. Its amazing how a little added motivation can do so much for a team. Emotion is a good thing, if its checked.
2) Peyton Manning's Neck and Bernard Pollard's Personality- You don't think Pollard isn't drooling over the chances at injuring Manning as early as he can in this game? Pollard is like the evil creatures in the Hunger Games. The dude could not care any less about Manning not being able to walk again after this game, he does whatever it takes to win. And if he's reading this, he's my favorite player and I love him.
3) The Broncos Are Overrated- Have you taken a look at the Broncos record this past season? They lost three games. They lost to Atlanta, Houston and New England. Those three teams are still alive in the postseason. They won 13 games. They beat Oakland, Kansas City and San Diego twice each. They beat Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Carolina and Tampa Bay. None of them won more than eight games. They beat Cincinnati by just eight points. And they beat Baltimore without Ray Lewis or Terrell Suggs. They produced maybe three quality wins this season, the wins over playoff teams in Baltimore and Cincinnati and the comeback win on Monday Night against San Diego. Thats it. They haven't beaten anybody this year. Baltimore beat New England in Foxboro, they destroyed the Giants. They started 9-2 and were frauds. Now they are inspired and playing great football against great teams. Denver was 13-3 and frauds. Can they play great football against great teams?
There is simply no reason more than not to believe so. Baltimore can win this game by attacking Manning early and often, and by taking Knowshon Moreno out completely (easier than you might think. He kind of sucks.) They also need to play defense, at least somewhat close to the defense they played against Indy. Baltimore can win this game, they just need to believe. Take it Groban.
No. 3 Green Bay Packers @ No. 2 San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, January 12 8:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Pat's Pick: Packers 13, 49ers 20
A lot of people are buying on the Packers. I am not. I see this game being one of those games that gets away from Green Bay because of their lacking running game. It is such a glaring weakness that even Clint Eastwood in Trouble with the Curve could diagnose it and see it.
By the way, that movie is fantastic for so many reasons. Justin Timberlake is giving Ryan Gosling a run for his money on my Man Crush List. Amy Adams is Pam from The Office's twin. I've never seen a bad Clint Eastwood movie. I love baseball movies, and this actually made plenty of sense. The plot carries on, it is almost three hours, but its worth it. If for nothing else, John Goodman rocks a stache and 70s suits. Watch it.
The Packers can not run the ball, DeJuan Harris is as good at that as hockey is at keeping their fans happy. Yet, Minnesota could not stop them and saw them score 28 points. Minnesota plays decent defense, San Francisco plays great defense. The 49ers are arguably one of the most complete teams in football. They can beat you with forcing turnovers. They can beat you by lighting up the scoreboard. They can beat you by attacking your weaknesses and exposing them. And fully expect Jim Harbaugh to do so agains the Packers in Candlestick Park.
I see the only possible scenario for this game going like this. San Fran forces an Aaron Rodgers pick-six early. Up 7-0 and with momentum going their way, Rodgers starts to throw a lot. The run game becomes non existent because Mike McCarthy refuses to run and because the Niners take it away by stuffing the middle. Rodgers is throwing too often, another interception. This one leads to a Frank Gore touchdown. Up 14-0 and in control, the Niners don't look back, despite rookie Colin Kaepernick's dreadful performance. Trust me, I don't see Kaepernick outplaying Rodgers, at all. But I do see the 49ers defense outplaying the possible MVP candidate.
I'm jumping off the Green Bay bandwagon officially today. Its getting too crowded.
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks @ No. 1 Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, January 13 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Pat's Pick: Seahawks 21, Falcons 18
While I am jumping off the Packers crowded bandwagon, I am squeezing on to the loaded Seattle one.
Seattle played championship football on Sunday afternoon, going down two scores early before putting 24 unanswered on the board to beat a hobbled Redskins (in what world did it make any sense to keep Griffin in that game? I know he said he could play, but at some point, as a head coach, you need to get your head out of your pompous ass and realize that a player is hurt and a team's chances are being ruined. Shanahan can defend his decision all he wants, but in the end, there is none to compensate for leaving an obviously injured RG3 in this game. In a way, I'm glad they lost this game for that reason.). Seattle is advancing to the division round of the NFC playoffs for the first time since Marshawn Lynch embarrassed the Saints defense that ended up producing a play that has more YouTube hits than The Best of Tobias Funke. Now, the Seahawks will travel to a different NFC South team, the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta produced another number one seed, something they did in 2010 too before winning zero games in the postseason. Matt Ryan has been a very good quarterback in the first five seasons of his career. He's not elite, I still respect that word. The only elite quarterbacks in the league are Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. Ryan gets it done in the regular season just fine, he almost threw for 5,000 yards this season after all. He posted a quarterback rating of 99.1! He threw 32 touchdowns and completed almost 70% of his passes. Again, this is not entirely new for Ryan in the regular season. The playoff numbers are much more disappointing for the 2-time Pro Bowler. In three career playoff games, Ryan has completed 63% of his passes and with just 584 yards, he is averaging 5.31 yards per attempt. That is inflated by his one game over 6 yards per throw in 2010. He has 3 touchdowns to 4 interceptions and a rating of 71.2. He is 0-3. Eventually, one would think he would break through and win at least a playoff game judging by how dominant he can be at times in the regular season.
This year will not produce that first win. I honestly think if Atlanta played any other team in the NFC, they would win that first playoff game behind Matty Ice. But I don't like how they match up against the Seahawks, who are probably the most complete team in football right now. They had the fourth ranked total offense and defense, and the third ranked special teams. No other team can compare to that. Lynch will run rampant on the vulnerable Falcons rush defense, allowing Russell Wilson to set up play action and make enough plays on his own to win this game. Ryan keeps it close in his fourth playoff game, but Seattle makes too many big plays to win this game and advance to the NFC Championship Game.
No. 3 Houston Texans @ No. 2 New England Patriots
Sunday, January 13 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Pat's Pick: Texans 14, Patriots 31
What is there to talk about for this game? Matt Schaub looked damn good in his first career playoff game, but he looked damn bad against this New England team just a few weeks ago. Houston is not good on national television, and is even more dismal against the Patriots. The last time, and the only time in their history, the Texans beat the Pats was in 2009, when Brady was returning from his leg injury from 2008. Houston got their asses handed to them earlier this season on Monday Night Football by this very same Patriots team.
Very rarely do the Patriots go one and done in the playoffs, the last time that happened was at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens in that very same 2009 season. It won't happen this year. This Patriots team is hungry and dangerous. They won't settle for anything less than at least a shot at revenge for losing in the Super Bowl last season. The Texans are a talented team that is ready to make a playoff run, just not against New England. The Patriots attack Houston through the air the entire game, and Tom Brady doesn't make really any mistakes. New England goes up early and the Texans only reach double digits because of garbage time.
I hate it, but I can't bet against New England at home in the playoffs behind Tom Brady with an inexperienced team led by Matt Schaub. I just can't.
This is setting up an interesting slate of Championship games if I go 4-0. Which I won't.
But if I did, we would have a Baltimore-New England rematch from last season, only this time, Billy Cundiff is flipping burgers somewhere instead of kicking attempting missing game-winning field goals. We would also have a very intriguing NFC West showdown, which would be fitting with how entertaining and competitive the division was this season, between the 49ers and Seahawks. I hate to jinx anything like I did in 2008 when a possible showdown between my favorite team and my second team (just because of my hometown), Baltimore and Philadelphia, was in the looms. But, its possible that a Super Bowl consisting of my team and my dads team (Seattle) is waiting. Somewhere, Joe Flacco just threw up a little bit.
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