LeBron James is a man on a mission. U-571, Mission to Mars, Mission Impossible, Space Jam, He Got Game, and Get Smart all have nothing on the derailed goal and unfathomable perseverance of the King circa 2013. The Miami Heat have been the hottest team in the league since the calendar said February, and a lot of that can be attributed to the best basketball player in the NBA today. But is that a lock for the championship and a repeat?
It might be. But what about the Spurs and that pesky mix of experience and youth? Oklahoma City does boast arguably the second best player in the league and a pretty viable supporting cast. Indiana plays the best defense in the NBA, what if they find new ways to score? The Knicks have hung around all season, can Carmelo and A'Mare put on a playoff push? KG and Paul Pierce have been there before, do they have enough gas in the tank to carry a team to the Finals? The Clippers, Grizzlies and Bulls don't want to be ignored either, and the Lakers have the talent if they can grab the eight seed and get on the same page. The 76ers mailed it in a few weeks ago, though, no surprises there. Doug Collins is currently printing out a picture of Andrew Bynum and taping it to his dartboard as we speak.
So, I'm going to take us through the entire playoffs, round by round and matchup by matchup until we crown a winner. For those of us who read my really big NBA Preview back in October, you'll recall that I had Miami winning a second title in a row over the Clippers and that I also hinted at the Lakers dismantling even though I still ranked them as the number two team out West. I also thought the 76ers would be the 4th best in the East and that the Pistons would ride Greg Monroe into the postseason. We can't all be psychics all the time.
Remember, this is still very early and plenty will happen between now and the time the regular season wraps up. Who knows what Dwight Howard drama will start or who Roy Hibbert will punch.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND
1 Miami Heat vs 8 Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee has some talent to make some noise in the playoffs against anyone except for Miami. Milwaukee's big three of Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings and JJ Redick could not hold a candle to LeBron, Bosh and Wade. That's evident by the fact I only needed the first or last name for Miami's big three. I like this Bucks team but I think they need to overhaul Ellis in the offseason. I could see a team like Philly taking him in, maybe in a Turner for Ellis package that would need to include some other assets or a third team. This series probably sees a close game or two where LeBron or Wade take over down the stretch and it also likely ends in a four game sweep.
Good news for the Bucks though is that they are actually kind of entertaining to watch for the first time since a long time ago. Personally, I haven't cared about this organization at any point in my lifetime, getting treated to the likes of Armen Gilliam, Sherman Douglas, Tony Kukoc, Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut. Oh, and of course the Charlie Villanueva Era. Basically, the Bucks have been decent for the better part of the past decade, usually finishing somewhere in the 37-43 wins area with a few seasons plus or minus ten wins. They have been mediocre for most of my life, and while they still are hovering around .500, they at least have some star power and exciting offensive weapons. Monta Ellis will only ever see success in his career though in NBA 2k13, where he carried my fantasy draft franchise into the second round and they still imploded. I'm not bitter, why? Do I seem bitter? I'm not. Bitter.
Miami wins this one, 4-0. On to the next, on, on to the next one! (I need to stay relevant for my teenager audience. Happy belated birthday to Justin Bieber!)
2 Indiana Pacers vs 7 Boston Celtics
I'm instantly rooting for this over any Knicks-Bucks or Pacers-Bucks or Knicks-Celtics 2vs7 matchup. I'm also instantly intrigued by this possibility! Both of these teams are relying on strong defenses this season (Indiana is built that way, as is Boston but even more so in Rondo's absence). This would create for a defensively contested series that I see going seven games and ultimately coming down to how can Boston's limited bench step up in a long series. Pierce and Garnett are older and no one else has really stepped up since Rondo's injury. Courtney Lee, Jason Terry and Jeff Green have somewhat, but Jordan Crawford will have to supply a generous fifteen-twenty points in at least a few games in this series for the Celtics to have a chance. The Pacers can't score much, but they score enough to win games. Roy Hibbert is one of the best big men in the game right now, and with Danny Granger continuing to get healthy, this Indiana team could peak at the right time in the second season.
I liked the Pacers a lot before the season started and before Granger went down. They hung around and treaded water until he came back, and still find themselves at the top of the Central division. I love how Paul George has upped his game and creates plenty of shot opportunities for the Pacers that I think will be the difference in this matchup. Boston relies on big games from Pierce or Garnett right now, understandably since the offense has been fixed to run through Rondo in recent seasons. Rondo's injury will kill them in this matchup as the Pacers outscore the Celts in Game 7. This will either be the most watched or the least watched series of the first round, depending on whether or not Nielsen sets up a tracking device in Bill Walton's living room. Or Bill Simmons. Or Marv Albert.
Pacers win the series 4-3, Rajon Rondo slouches his shoulder and takes a nap.
3 New York Knicks vs 6 Chicago Bulls
This series could go either way, largely depending on the return of Derrick Rose. I feel like Rose is not going to come back this season at any point, which mind any skeptics of that, is the right decision. Rose coming back before he is 100% in a season that has seen the Eastern Conference just completely dominated by the Miami Heat is moronic. Why should Rose risk his career to come back, maybe win a playoff round only to ultimately not make it any farther than whenever the Bulls meet Miami? Rose seems smarter than that, he's no Rasheed Wallace.
Chicago somehow managed to stay very relevant this season in his absence, only to suddenly decide they can't remember how to score and slip back to the six seed. I think the Bulls wind up here unless Brooklyn makes me look smart and doesn't win another game this season. The Bulls played this season like they had to, but played it as smart as they ever could making way for next season. Rumors of a Carlos Boozer deal made me cringe, as that would be pure stupidity. Although Boozer looks like some strange creature from Ancient Aliens, he is going to be a huge piece of the puzzle once Rose comes back. Let's not forget, this team was the best in the Eastern Conference last year before Rose got hurt. With him in the lineup, and the starting five looking something like Boozer, Rose, Noah, Deng and maybe Hamilton, if he is still around, or Taj Gibson is among the best in the league. But, not this season as the Knicks will flounder and probably make it ugly, but they pick up their first playoff round win since before Bush administration.
Knicks win 4-2, only because Stoudemire slaps a fish tank in the locker room after a Game 2 loss.
4 Atlanta Hawks vs 5 Brooklyn Nets
Well, Brooklyn, you've proven me wrong so far. I had the Hawks as the five seed, so I'm counting that as a win for me, but I had the Nets out of the playoffs in my preseason preview. I didn't think shelling out massive contracts to anyone with a pulse would work, but it did. Brook Lopez and Deron Williams have survived and Gerald Wallace has looked rejuvenated all season. Even Reggie Evans grabbed 20 boards in the Nets-76ers game I went to this year. Evans may have had the laugh than, but in my blog, I get the last laugh. Usually. Well, never mostly. Although I did predict the Spurs being the best team in the league a few years ago, but I don't have it on paper. Just ask my roomate, he was there.
Just a sidenote, me and my roomate enjoy getting drunk together, playing NBA 2k13, and getting in heated sports debates on a regular basis. A few weeks ago, we were doing a WWE theme song power hour (only themes from the 90s and early 00s, thank God. Whoever made that playlist on YouTube, brilliant job) on some stale keg beer from the past weekend. Yeah, it was a Tuesday night. Anyway, as the night went on and we were definitely tipsy, we debated what is more important in basketball- coaching or talent. I believed talent was and he argued coaching. This went back and forth for a solid hour before we both cursed each other out, refused to settle it and went to bed. This is how our best debates go. Anyway, comment with your thoughts, I'd love to hear them and brag about them to my roommate! So basically, take my side!
The Hawks have more talent in a seven game series to beat Brooklyn. The only thing that worries me here is Josh Smith realizing "Well, I'm probably not coming back here next season, I'm just gonna mail this in. I'm getting paid anyway." I don't think he will, but than again he does play in the NBA and will get a loaded contract regardless of his performance in the playoffs. It's just that if he does well in the postseason, the offer could come from a contender like Houston or Boston, and if he craps out, it could be Charlotte or Washington and we never hear from him again.
Hawks win, 4-2 in a forgettable series.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND
1 San Antonio Spurs vs 8 Houston Rockets
This will be another great one. Two of my favorite teams in the league- I love and respect Greg Popovich, Duncan and the entire Spurs organization and I love James Harden and when new teams make the playoffs. I'd like to see Houston make a run, although I'd like to see one more for the Spurs since my 76ers have shit the bed anyway. I'd also love to see a great series here between two exciting teams (for different reasons and styles), but I see a five game quickie with San Antonio moving on.
Harden has stapled himself as a superstar this season, and it would be very interesting if the the Thunder end up as the one seed and draw Harden in the first round. Harden has put up monster numbers this season, along side the equally impressive Omer Asik and somewhat disappointing Jeremy Lin. Houston has a bright future ahead of them, especially though the Thomas Robinson deal. Robinson may have just needed a change of scenery or a longer chance than the few months he got with the Kings after drafting him in last year's draft. That was the most boneheaded move I've seen in awhile. And I watched my team get Andrew Bynum on one leg for our best asset at the time.
For as bright a future I see in this young and talented team, it starts with a first round exit to this dynasty. Tony Parker should be back and healthy from his ankle sprain by than and San Antonio just doesn't lose in the first round of the playoffs under Duncavich. If anyone ever makes a documentary about this Spurs dynasty and tries to use that, I'm suing for copyright.
Spurs win, 4-1. Harden's beard beats Parker's accent, 3,728-4.
2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs 7 Los Angeles Lakers
Of course this means I have the Jazz falling from the seven seed to out of the playoff picture, which I think will happen for two reasons. One, the Utah Jazz are the most boring team in recent history. Two, I don't think they have enough talent to hold off a Lakers push. After Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and
This series worries me. The Thunder were in the FInals just a year ago, but James Harden was more of a part of that than they realized. The Lakers are the best team in the league on paper, but paper meant nothing for them this season. Kobe Bryant is a different player in the postseason, Steve Nash is a different player in the postseason (and he's been absent for a few seasons, you don't think he'll have some added fuel?) and Dwight Howard took a shitty Magic team to the Finals in 2009 (granted, no one but LeBron and an even shittier cast stood in his way that season). If everything comes together for this squad, they could upset the Thunder here. I know Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook could score 70 points alone on the Lakers the way they've played defense this season, but can't you see the core of this Los Angeles team turning it on come the postseason. Miami struggled at first too when they were built, but have come together since than. Couldn't the same thing happen for the Lakers? Everyone counted them out since their early season struggles, this is a storybook ending here, people!
So why am I picking the Thunder in 7? Game 7 leads to a Bryant vs Durant showdown, with Durant's supporting cast slightly edging Bryant's for a narrow win. And Mike D'Antoni is still coaching the Lakers, right? Yup. However, this series goes down in first round history.
Thunder win, 4-3.
3 Los Angeles Clippers vs 6 Golden State Warriors
This is giving the Warriors a lot of credit, as they have been slipping dramatically in the past month. Stephen Curry scored 54 against New York and the Warriors still lost. Other guys like Jarrett Jack will need to step up in this matchup for them to have even a stone's chance at this one. For the record, I think I just made that analogy and saying up.
I'm giving the edge to the Clippers because I am sticking by my preseason pick and because I think the Warriors have mightily overachieved this season. Curry is a good player, David lee is a good player and Klay Thompson is a good player. Carl Landry has been a pretty decent help to my fantasy basketball team. Richard Jefferson is not bad. My point is they have no go to guy in the playoffs. Sure, Curry is obviously good for 54 on a given night, against a Knicks team that I could score 15 on. But they don't have a guy that can stop the bleeding in a playoff series or turn a series around. The Clippers have two of those guys in Blake Griffin and Chris Paul. I like what the Warriors have done, showing signs of life for the first time since Baron Davis led them to "believe" all the way back in 2007 and upset the number one ranked Mavericks. However, I see a sweep here.
Clippers win, 4-0. Entertaining for a sweep though! You got that going for ya, Golden State!
4 Denver Nuggets vs 5 Memphis Grizzlies
This series has NBA League Pass written all over it, but we get to enjoy it on national television! The league's number one scoring offense against the Grizz Kids! Can Memphis still win a title even though they dealt Rudy Gay? Can Andre Iguodala help take a team past the second round? Those questions and more in the battle of the League Pass Elite.
I think the difference maker in this matchup will come down to Kasta Koufus and Zach Randolph. These two big men can grab boards and are smart players (more Koufus, Randolph being described as "smart" is like the guy who came up with "C's get degrees" Yeah, I guess). Ty Lawson and Mike Conley are going to get theres, and Faried and Mcgee will get theres along with Gasol. Whoever wins the Koufus vs Randolph battle will likely win this series. I think another key will be the shot selection of Iguodala. He is a great defender, and a generally clutch shooter. Generally. That means he is not a star. This is Ty Lawson's team with Iguodala as the defensive sidekick. If a big shot needs to be made by the Nuggets, it needs to be taken by Lawson. I'd joke and say unless Iguodala doesn't have a defender within 25 feet on him, but I still don't trust him with that shot.
Nuggets win a thrilling series, 4-2 with a couple OT games in there.
EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
1 Miami Heat vs 5 Atlanta Hawks
Miami is too freaking hard to pick against in the East. Literally, unless one of the big three, and really only if Wade or James, goes down for a long period of time in the postseason, I can not fathom the Heat losing a seven game series. At least not until the Finals. It seems pretty glaringly obvious that Miami is on a collision course for the NBA Finals, right now. And Atlanta is not the team to worry them.
Al Horford would have to guard LeBron in this series, leaving Wade and Bosh and even Shane Battier, who always turns it on in the playoffs even more, open. James will struggle a little early against Horford, but I don't think Big Al can contain him for a whole series. This series is like pitting Star Wars Battlefront against Star Wars Battlefront 2. The second version had its moments, like how you could actually control jedi's and the graphics were clearly better. But the original Battlefront wins nine times out of ten because it is the complete package. Of the two games, it is the one every single person takes with them to a deserted island (that has electrical outlets so you can take over the galaxy online). And if you had to pick Miami or Atlanta in a seven game series to win, and if you get it wrong you have to ride a Carnival cruise, every sane person is taking Miami. And every sane person is spared of riding a Carnival cruise.
Miami wins, 4-1.
2 Indiana Pacers vs 3 New York Knicks
This one gave me some trouble. I really think Carmelo shows up in the playoffs this year. I also really think Indiana is the only threat to Miami in the Eastern Conference, meaning they should be able to handle the Knicks than, right?
For some reason, I can see New York upsetting Indiana here. I don't trust Roy Hibbert for a long period of time. He tends to kill you for a half, than disappear. I don't like that, but I do like the Danny Granger and George Hill combo destroying this Knicks defense. Tyson Chandler would have his hands full, despite his ability to step his game up in the playoffs (I'm looking at you Dallas, let's just say the Gilette fusions wouldn't be so taboo had you signed a certain free agent). I also am conflicted because I'd love to see a Knicks-Heat Eastern Conference Finals. For whatever reason, that excites me. Think of what you would rather watch, and what the casual basketball fan would rather see. A series with LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony, Jason Kidd and A'Mare Stoudemire. Or a series with LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Danny Granger, Paul George, George Hill and Roy Hibbert.
Need I say more? I do, because despite what would make for a more entertaining series offensive and star power wise, it isn't going to happen. The Pacers have my trust more in closing out tight games, and I think all of these games are going to be tight. Carmelo or Granger taking the last shot. I take Carmelo with every shot until the last one, than I put my faith in Danny.
Indiana wins, 4-2
WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
1 San Antonio Spurs vs 4 Denver Nuggets
I love this series! Denver takes three games here, all at home. That's happening, I guarantee it. San Antonio is so well coached that this may be as a surprise to you, but Denver is playing at historic levels at home this season. And I think the Spurs will struggle in the altitude as they are getting older, well, as Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili get older. If Tony Parker plays in this series, and plays 100%, than they might take one in Denver.
Otherwise, this is a seven game series that will go down in history! (Book on a forgettable sweep) So let's jump to Game 7, in San Antonio. Denver has hung around all game, but find themselves down seven with four minutes left. They need somebody to go on a run now and get them back in it against arguably one of the game's best seven players of all time. Who do the Nuggets turn to for leadership in this foreseeable situation?
Ty Lawson? He's still young. Andre Iguodala? I wouldn't trust him in this situation if he was roleplaying in his backyard pretending he was Jordan. Andre Miller? He's been around, but can he do that at his age against Tim Duncan in San Antonio? Kenneth Faried? He may be able to dunk, but that won't help him here. Chris Anderson? Oh wait, he's in Miami. Smart move, because he would have lost right here. If the Spurs find themselves in this situation, they are moving on to the Western Conference Finals. And honestly, there is nothing farfetched about this situation at all.
San Antonio wins, 4-3
2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs 3 Los Angeles Clippers
The x-factor in this series, you ask? Russell Westbrook. The only way this team moves on to another NBA Finals matchup with Miami is if he holds his cool in the late rounds of the playoffs like he did last season. If Westbrook doesn't only play well individually, but for the team, they can beat the Clippers. Even if he does, I don't think Oklahoma City is a lock to win this series.
I really am sold on the Clippers, I have been all year. They are too complete and have too much star power at the top with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Paul can single-handedly change a game in a swoop. Griffin can sway momentum with one dunk. And it doesn't end there. I know DeAndre Jordan has taken a lot of heat this season for everything from being too soft to not living up to his potential. Jordan is better than he gets credit for, and has shown shines of brightness. Who says one of those moments doesn't happen in this series? I mean it might not, but Jordan could swing this thing by dominating the boards. And don't forget Chauncey Billups. He's been to this rodeo a few times. If he is healthy, he can change a game as well. And just for a reminder to how deep this team is: the following Clippers are bench players- Matt Barnes, Eric Bledsoe, Jamal Crawford, Lamar Odom, Willie Green, Grant Hill, Ronny Turiaf and Ryan Hollins. All of those players start for the Charlotte Bobcats and most of them start on a lot of teams around the league. The Clippers are deep, man.
Plus, they were my preseason pick. Gotta stick through and through, sorry KD. I picked against you in 2007 when I said Greg Oden would have the better career, and I'm picking against you again here. (wait a second)
Los Angeles wins, 4-3
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
1 Miami Heat vs 2 Indiana Pacers
Well, I've eluded to his enough already. The series is awesome. People think Miami might lose it. It leads First Take every single day, even if the NHL went belly under or Roger Goodell was arrested for smoking pot with Terrell Owens. Miami goes down 2-1 again. Miami comes back. Indiana doesn't stop fighting until they lose by thirty in Game 7.
That's my only flaw with this series, I don't see an exciting Game 7 coming from it. Sure, the series will be back and forth and provide a lot of buzzer beater opportunities and great moments, but Miami is pissed off in a Game 7 at home with a shot at the NBA Finals for a third straight year. Don't forget, if Miami wins another championship, suddenly Dwayne Wade has three rings. And Mike Miller has two.
Miami wins, 4-3
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
1 San Antonio Spurs vs 3 Los Angeles Clippers
Had I not picked the Clippers before the season, I would pick the Spurs here. I really think the Spurs have the team to make one more run at the Finals in the Tim Duncan era. It comes down to if they'll have enough steam, well if Duncan has enough steam, coming down the stretch. They fell apart last season suddenly at the heels of an 18 game winning streak. Couldn't that happen again?
I'd love to see San Antonio against Miami, two dynasties of the past decade squaring off. I just can't pick against the Finals I picked in the beginning of the season. I know, I know. And yes, it is hard to be this humble (just kidding, I brag about tons of stuff. Like being an extra in a low budget movie that I don't think was ever finished.). And it's not as though I picked the Timberwolves to make the Finals (my roomate did) before the season. The Clippers have a more than conceivable chance at making it. They've played relatively flawless basketball all season, only hitting a few speed bumps through a Chris Paul injury. Well guess what bitches, Chris Paul is healthy and he does two things when he's healthy. He kicks ass and chews bubble gum, and he's all out of bubble gum.
Don't try and tell me you wouldn't buy a video game that replaced Duke Nukem with Chris Paul and called it Duke Chris Paul. Don't even try.
Los Angeles wins, 4-2
NBA FINALS
Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Clippers
Well, here we are. If I had been writing blogs in the early or late 90's (I'd have taken a break in 1994 and 1995 to try writing blogs about cooking, before making a glorious comeback), I'd be writing about no one will beat MJ and the Bulls for a few years. Until they fall apart because of free agency or when Dennis Rodman leaves to visit Iraq and Saddam Hussein. Now, I'm writing blogs about how no one will beat the Miami Heat and LeBron James until 2014 when he is swayed by Kobe and leaves another town behind in a really ugly fashion.
Miami wins a fantastic six game series because of LeBron and D-Wade. They will each have their moments when they take over games. But most of them will go to James. LeBron James showed us last season that he can be clutch in the playoffs. He showed us this season, the other night, when he hit his first buzzer beater in South Beach to prolong the Heat's winning streak to 16. (Side note: I'm not just blowing Miami right now because of the winning streak. I don't care if they had lost seven in a row going into me publishing this- no one can beat Miami.) The Heat are the Bulls of the 90s right now. I don't know if James can fulfill his promise of seven rings for South Beach, but I think he will come damn close.
Sorry for the lack of surprise or boldness, but that's not what Miami stands for. They don't surprise anyone. They are the best team in the NBA, and I don't think anyone will stop them.
Miami wins the NBA Championship, 4-2
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