EDITOR'S NOTE: I have picked none of the surprises mentioned above. I had a gut feeling about the Patriots loss, but kept that hunch to myself. The Sixth Sense shocked me more than a lot of things in life, totally off guard.
The NFL season is less than a week away and pumpkin spice coffee is back at Wawa. Two of the best things in life have spawned me to change my laptop background from the summery, open highway back to the rightful autumn river scene with orange and red abundant. It is one of the highlights of my year, getting back into fall mode. The Farmer's Almanac might say the weather outside will be record breaking cold, but I know that it will be warm as a campfire in all of our hearts.
It is also time for me to make my weekly predictions into the NFL games so that my dedicated readers can expect heartbreak or celebration for their favorite teams and/or gambling fixtures. However, this year I am going to add a curveball to your liking. I am also going to pick a fantasy impact player for every game. What's that, you stubbornly ask? My fantasy impact player will be the guy who I think will be your best bet or highest scoring fantasy option in said game. So for example, if Denver were playing the Jets one week, I might pick Peyton Manning to be the best fantasy option of the game. I also might mix things up and acknowledge that he almost always will be the highest scoring guy, unless his sixteenth neck surgery finally catches up with SuperHuman, and give you a sleeper pick or a dud pick. Convention would say that readers will be bored if I'm always just picking the same people, so I like to stay zesty and relevant. I actually might make that the new tagline of my blog post. Email with considerations.
Week One is always a tough one to predict because the only sample size that we have is the meaningless preseason (sorry football diehards and conservatives) and our offseason predictions and gut feelings. Week One is a crapshoot. We're kind of running in head first and full steam ahead with a blindfold on. So, let's do it.
Thursday, September 4, 2014
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
My Pick: Seattle My Fantasy Impact Player: Russell Wilson
The first game of the season is generally pretty exciting and usually high scoring, if only on one side of the field (SEVEN FUCKING TOUCHDOWNS?!). With Seattle's defense, will Green Bay's potent offense light up the scoreboard? In Seattle, with the Seahawks defending their championship for the first time, I don't think so. I expect Seattle to be the high scoring team in this affair, although I don't think it will be a blowout or a catastrophe. But I do think Russell Wilson puts on a clinic and has his way with a Packers defense that has been worse in the Aaron Rodgers era but is also missing Discount Double Raji. This game is important to me thought for two reasons. One, my dad is a big Seahawks fan and I am happy for him because I feel like they got vengeance for Pops after his team lost to the Steelers almost a decade ago. Two, I drafted Marshawn Lynch first overall in my fantasy league. Sure, that sounds great on paper (or on a laptop screen). But I did this a year after crippling my fantasy team for an entire season by picking CJ Spiller first overall. I could have went for a surefire quarterback in Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, or perhaps took a flier on a younger running back who hasn't had a huge workload in the past few seasons in Montee Ball (even though I would have never done that). But, I took a chance and went with an unstable running back who includes Skittles in his diet. I'm an asshole.
Sunday, September 7, 2014
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
My Pick: Baltimore My Fantasy Impact Player: AJ Green
Good news, AJ Green is on my fantasy team this year! Now that is a pick I was excited about, despite his overtime inducing ridiculous hail mary touchdown that he had against Baltimore that almost doomed them two seasons ago (spoiler alert: they won the Super Bowl anyway). Baltimore is a work in progress right now on defense, so in the first game of the season, I could see Green going for a few long plays and a touchdown or two. But in the end, I think this comes down to home field advantage making the difference. Baltimore also generally opens the season with a bang, with last season as a big exception when Peyton Manning took a shit on the entire state of Maryland. Either way, I like Joe Flacco this year, I like the Ravens at home and I like at least a half hour to be used focusing on Ray Rice during the CBS telecast. These are bets you can take to the piggy bank.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
My Pick: New Orleans My Fantasy Impact Player: Drew Brees
I know, no surprise on the fantasy impact player in this game. But I expect a four touchdown game from Drew Brees in this game, which is a good game even for Mr. Louisiana. Can we coin that nickname for Brees? Is it already taken by the Zatarain's guy? Now, I do expect a big game for the Saints offense but that is no discredit to my guys down in Georgia. I think Atlanta has a bounce back season from last year's injury debacle that left Matt Ryan looking like John Cena in his match against Brock Lesnar at Summer Slam. Speaking of which, where in the blue hell is the WWE going with Lesnar, who mind you, is still a part time wrestler? Are they going to leave the WWE title off the books at a few of the lesser pay-per-views this year, like TLC? Will people watch a gimmick pay-per-view with no championship match or sign of the monster heel everyone is supposed to get behind? Why put all of your marbles in a box you can only see seven months a year when you can put them in a less shiny but more durable box? Vince's ice bucket challenge must have frozen up some sense #JERICHO4CHAMP.
Still, expect the Saints offense to come out storming, even on the road, to bring home a win in Atlanta.
Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams
My Pick Before Sam Bradford Fell Apart: Rams, My Pick Now: Rams
Fantasy Impact Player: Zac Stacy
It is a shame that Bradford went down for the year because this Rams team could have been a fun team to watch bloom and possibly even sneak into the playoffs or at least hang around for the race. Without Bradford, this is a six or seven win team. Best case scenario. Realistically, without Captain Sam, I think this team is a five win team, one of those five wins coming against a Vikings team led by Captain Cassel. Expect heavy doses of Zac Stacy with either Shaun Hill or rookie Garrett Gilbert taking snaps for the Rams. The Vikings defense is something to sneeze at, so if Stacy can get it going early, I think he is your best bet in this game fantasy wise. Sure, Adrian Peterson is always a nice piece to have, but this Rams defense is what is going to keep them in games. The pass rushes of the NFC West are something I'd like to face significantly less than the pass rush of the Great North.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
My Pick: Pittsburgh Fantasy Impact Player: Le'Veon Bell
I picked Bell as the impact player here so that I could vent about how close I was to landing him. Bell somehow slipped into like the eighth round in my fantasy draft, and two picks before my eighth pick, he finally went. I mistakenly picked Cutler before I lost out on Bell, and really I should have just nabbed Bell while I had the chance and than taken my quarterback out of the crap quartet of Tony Romo, Nick Foles, Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton. Or even Ben Roethlisberger, although there would have to be a gun to my head before I picked Big Ben. Regardless, I missed out on who I think will be a fantasy stud in Bell by two friggin picks. Fantasy dud this week is every running back on the Browns roster. I like the Steelers rush defense a lot this year, I just don't like their secondary who all might be old enough to have starred in RED.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
My Pick: Philadelphia Fantasy Impact Player: Riley Cooper
The Eagles are going to score points (which is why I'm going with a sleeper this week in Riley Cooper, who could get wide open against this Jaguars secondary), and that is what is going to win them the NFC East this year. Jacksonville isn't going to win many games on the road and they aren't going to be able to stop juggernaut offenses from doing their thing. One of the handful of blowouts I see the Jags losing this year is this game right off the bat against Chip Kelly's merry-go-round of weapons. I think the Jaguars are on the road to being competitive again, I just don't see them being fast enough to stop this offense. I also don't like their offense led by anyone but Blake Bortles. I say throw him into the fire and realize right away that you need to surround this talented, young quarterback with weapons who can either run a decent 40 (I'm looking at you, Toby Gerhart) or stay out of jail (I'm looking at you, Justin Blackmon). Is Justin Blackmon still alive?
POOP OF THE WEEK
Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets
My Pick: New York Jets Fantasy Impact Player: N/A, Jets Defense
I don't see myself picking a defense very often this season as my fantasy impact player, although a very good strategy would seem to be going week to week and picking the defense who will be playing the Raiders. Matt Schaub is the quarterback and Dennis Allen is the head coach, and a wise man in Vince Lombardi once said that you are only as good as your quarterback and head coach. So, yeah. Oakland has a decent defense which will make this game as 10-6 shithole of a game. Need a reason to tune in to the Poop of the Week? Hmm. You might get to see some exciting stuff between Michael Vick and Geno Smith. I give up.
Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears
My Pick: Chicago My Fantasy Impact Player: Matt Forte
The Bears are my dark horse for this season and you'll find that out when I'm still picking them to win every single week by Week 14 when they are eliminated from the playoffs. Sorry Bears fans, I'm going to jinx your entire year. I love the offense and if Cutler can stay healthy, this team is scary. The Bills are the exact opposite. I almost might be selling too low on Buffalo this season. But bare with me, they lost Jairus Byrd, EJ Manuel is the quarterback and Steve Johnson mysteriously left for San Francisco this offseason. Either way, I see this game being a lopsided loss for the
Washington Redskins @ Houston Texans
My Pick: Houston Fantasy Impact Player: RGIII
All of this heresy about Kirk Cousins needing to start over Robert Griffin III will hopefully be silenced for a few weeks on Sunday when RGIII racks up yard after yard after yard against a Texans defense that I'm not as sold as everyone else seems to be on. That being said, I still think he screws up late in a close game, giving the Texans an ugly win. In terms of both of these teams, I do think there is room for improvement this season (which isn't saying much since both were bottom dwellers in 2013) but I also think Houston will probably see more of it. If I were a betting man, though, I would stay far away from the uncertainty of this game.
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
My Pick: Kansas City Fantasy Impact Player: Not Jamaal Charles
I wrote at length about the decline of Larry Johnson as a fantasy football stud the offseason before he disappeared, which I am proud of because I don't think I was even in high school yet when I did that. I also wrote a piece about Barry Bonds and the implication of steroids on his record breaking home run before I was in college, so I mean, someone should hire me. Anyone have Sports Illustrated's digits? Anyway, when you are the only guy on a team, you become less and less of a threat and therefore less important in fantasy terms. Even if you are as talented as talented comes, as is Charles, you are going to find it difficult to break off ten and twenty yard gains when there's six or seven guys in the box. The Titans should be smart and load up in the middle, daring Alex Smith to trust his receivers when most of them are in new uniforms, suspended or seemingly unconscious. However, the difference in this game will be the Chiefs defense, which is infinitely worse than last season with the losses of Brandon Flowers and Brandon Albert, but is also still among the more impressive groups. The Titans lack anything that could even be considered an offense. Expect a 13-7 cat fight here.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
My Pick: New England Fantasy Impact Player: Shane Vareen
A coworker of mine was telling me last night that they are in something called a confidence pool with their family. I had never heard of such a thing, so I'm going to assume no one has. The basic gist of the pool seems to be that you pick the winner of all the week's games and rank them from 1-16 in declining confidence in terms of who will win the game. For example, if you thought for sure the Patriots would beat the Dolphins this week, as he did, you would rank the Patriots as number 16. On the flip side, if you thought the Titans-Chiefs game was such a toss-up that you don't know who to even pick, you would pick your winner and rank it as number 1 because you are the least confident. I'd rather just pick all of the games with the lines and see who has the most wins at the end of the year but hey, I am Polish. My point somewhere in this ethnic cloud is that I'm not so sure about this Patriots team. This game won't even teach us much about them, at that. Tom Brady's teams have struggled against the Dolphins in Miami in year's past. Even if they come away with a win, rarely is it ever a sure thing or blowout. I see Brady slowing the game down by going with the run game, relying heavily on Shane Vareen who should be good for a touchdown in this one. Come to me next week about how the Pats look.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My Pick: Tampa Bay Fantasy Impact Player: Not Cam Newton
Fantasy wise, you could bet on the Bucs defense in this one, you could probably bet on Doug Martin in this one, Vincent Jackson seems like a safe bet and that's it. Stay away from Josh McCown in his first game as a "starter" and in Tampa. Stay far away from the entire Panthers offense. Tampa has improved greatly on defense, the game is in Tampa and the Panthers have regressed so much on offense that you're going to get dizzy on this Panthers seesaw. 12 wins last season could easily turn into four or five this year with the offense they will be fielding, led by Kelvin Benjamin as the rookie number one target and the ageless, decrepit backfield of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. What's the longer running show that no one cares about, The Stewart-Williams Slow Down Backfield or Big Brother? It's a tough one to call.
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
My Pick: Dallas Fantasy Impact Player: Tony Romo
This one is my wild card. Bare with me. How often do the Cowboys surprise us, either by underperforming or over performing? All of the time, right? Well, everyone has written off this Cowboys team so when is a better time to surprise us than right out of the gates at home? How often do we see a 500 yard, six touchdown random performance from Tony Romeo? It happens, so why not against this 49ers team that will be coming out a little weak and a little slow on defense and probably a little too confident in themselves? On the flip side, that offense will probably be a little too confident knowing they will be playing probably the worst defense in the history of football. I see a high scoring, 49-46 bloodbath in Dallas with Mr. Romo coming out on top!
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
My Pick: Denver Fantasy Impact Player: Peyton Manning
Lesson learned last year, don't piss of Peyton Manning in the postseason and expect to beat him in the following season opener. At least when Baltimore beat them in the 2012 playoffs they also had to deal with the wrath of Dr. Manning the following season. Andrew Luck and the Colts will be paying the price for the beatdown that Seattle handed Denver in the Super Bowl. Talk about bad luck! LOL!
Monday, September 8, 2014
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions
My Pick: Detroit Fantasy Impact Player: Calvin Johnson
Can you ever bet against Megatron, especially against this Giants team in turmoil? I would tell you to believe in Rashad Jennings because I love everything about him this season, but I don't like his matchup against a stingy Lions rush defense. I also think the Lions bounce back at least a little bit from last season's sideshow and what a better way to do it than on a pointless Monday night game that people will only watch because it is Monday Night Football and FOOTBALL IS BACK BAYBAY!!!!
San Diego Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals
My Pick: San Diego Fantasy Impact Player: Nick Novak
The kicker?! That's how I leave you, picking the kicker as the fantasy impact player?! Both of these teams have decent defenses, with the Cardinals having one of the better in the league. Both of these teams can put up points, with the Chargers having one of the better in the league. You need to win two out of three sides of the ball to win a football game. Offense, defense and special teams. If the Chargers win on offense and the Cardinals win on defense, you do the math. That's right, we find ourselves in one of those weird, entertaining but also pretty boring games where it's 19-16 and the kickers are getting all of the fantasy points. I like Novak to hit five field goals in this one, taking the Chargers to an important 1-0 start in that AFC West.
Last Week: -
This Week: -
This is where I will keep my week by week standings so that by Week 5 I start getting attention from gamblers everywhere. Until next week, football is back, football is back, FOOTBALL IS FREAKING BACK! See ya.
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