NFL Conference Championships Preview

The division round of the postseason taught us a lot about what to expect from the Conference Championships. That you can't expect anything.

Everyone expected Seattle to waltz into Atlanta and knock off the NFC's number one seed. Matt Ryan and the Falcons are still playing. More people were picking the Packers to march into Candlestick Park and handily beat the 49ers because "you don't bet against Aaron Rodgers." While the loss can't be blamed on Rodgers, a loss is a loss and San Francisco moved on. 


Everyone expected Baltimore to lie down against Denver, winners of eleven straight games and led by the greatest quarterback in NFL history (I'm leaving out my bias here, I was very confident in Baltimore to the point of overconfidence to the point where I probably lost a few years of my life because of this game.) Baltimore needed two overtimes and a miracle to do so, but they beat the Broncos in Mile High. And everyone expected the Patriots to make a mockery of the Texans. Well, that actually happened, even though Matt Schaub played a pretty decent game against Tom. But still, the game was not close.

If we learned anything from the slate of games from this past weekend and their outcomes, its that this season has truly been unpredictable. And thats the only prediction we have: that we have no idea what to expect. I can offer you my predictions for this weekends games, and I will. While predictions are always just that, predictions and not facts, this season has been far more unforeseeable than any in recent memory. All of this parity has created some very competitive and exciting games, however. While the Golden Globes guarantee awkward everything and a waste of four hours, the NFL playoffs guarantee quality football and a good chance for a nail biter (unless you place the most awkward quarterback in the league against the one whose married to a supermodel and has three rings). 

Before I do my previews of the two championship games, some notes on the teams who were booted on Sunday:

Russell Wilson outplayed Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan won because his defense showed up when it needed to and his coach generally makes better decisions. Pete Carroll has made some bold coaching decisions that have usually gone his way during his tenure in Seattle, but going for it on 4th and 1 in Atlanta's territory early in the game was flat out greedy and stupid. You always take the milk from the back of the freezer at the store, you always take the points on the road. Wilson played well enough to win that game, and he proved that he really is not phased, pretty obvious through the fact that he should be playing in the NFC Championship Game as a rookie. 

Aaron Rodgers is good but his defense is worse. If Green Bay wants to make it back to the Super Bowl, they need to revamp that defense, even if it means missing the playoffs for a year. They need to rebuild that side of the ball. The offense put up over 30 points and Green Bay still lost by double digits. There is seriously nothing Aaron Rodgers can do about that. 

John Fox should be fired. Well, that might be a bit obnoxious, but allowing what happened on the game tying touchdown in Denver to happen is unacceptable. The defense plays prevent defense in a seven point game with under 90 seconds left. The Ravens were facing 77 yards with 69 seconds to go in the game. Joe Flacco might be the most feared deep passer in the league, but had the Broncos been even somewhat attempting or executing a prevent defense, Denver would be in the championship game.

The Texans have come a long way from the laughing stock of the league. Sure, they gave up 45 points to the Patriots. So did the Broncos last year. The Texans are now learning how to win and if they can keep this core of Schaub, JJ Watt, Arian Foster and Adrian Johnson together, they could bring a title to Houston within five seasons. 

The producers are telling me to "Wrap It Up" so here are my picks. 

AFC Championship Game

No. 4 Baltimore Ravens @ No. 2 New England Patriots

6:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Pat's Pick: Ravens 28, Patriots 24

I hate to say a team is a team of destiny, but it sure as hell seems that way with the Ravens right now. That game on Sunday is a game I've watched the Ravens lose countless times since the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh/Ray Rice Era began in Baltimore. Lots of heart, defense gets tired, gives up lead late and a few calls go against us. Chalk up the loss. But Joe Flacco didn't give up, didn't start throwing safe passes and didn't turn the ball over. The defense got tired but played on pure adrenaline in overtime, scratch that, two overtimes. The "old" defense was on the field for over 75 plays. The "washed-up defense" gave up 21 points (Trindon Holliday lit the special teams up for 14 of his own) and scored on a pick-six. And they didn't give up a bomb pass with thirty seconds left in the game for a 60 yard touchdown to completely swing momentum. Like completely. 

Baltimore is believing in the Ray Lewis effect, and how could they not. He has been the leader of this team and city since before Y2K. He dropped to his knees in tears, pride and humility as soon as Justin Tucker's kick was pronounced "good". He said "man believes in the possible, God believes in the impossible" after the win. He is the most passionate player in NFL history. How could his retirement announcement not energize and motivate this entire team? Should any of us be surprised by this streak? I truly think, not just through my blind bias, that the Ravens are the favorites to take the rings home this season. Heart, motivation and confidence and belief that you can get it done is so important right now.

Football games all have their highs and lows, their peaks and valleys. The team with true grit and confidence that can get them through the lows  and cut down on the valleys is the team that makes it through the postseason. And right now that team is Baltimore.

That team used to be New England. 

The Patriots have not had a game that they handily won in the postseason in well over six years. I'd say their 20-3 win over Indianapolis in 2005 was their last one. Tom Brady has not won a Super Bowl since 2004. While they are still a force to be reckoned with in the postseason, they did make the Super Bowl in 2007 and last season, they aren't the same polarizing terror that they were six years ago. Baltimore has exploited that lately.

The Ravens beat the Pats in the 2009 playoffs, they beat New England in Foxboro earlier this season in Week 3, and they were a dropped pass and a botched field goal away from beating them in last season's AFC Championship game. The major difference from those games and now that I can see? The Ravens know how to win now. They know how to close out games and rebound from the lows and struggles of a game. They are experienced in the W column. And they are motivated and confident, which means they are dangerous. 

Of course, the Patriots are confident as well, they are the hands down best playoff team led by the best playoff quarterback in the toughest playoff stadium this side of the millennium. Baltimore would be foolish to march into New England overconfident and underestimating the potency of the veteran leadership Tom Brady brings to any Patriots team he is a part of. He won with no offense from 2000-2006, he won with an explosive offense from 2007-2010 and he is winning again with a young and slow offense (outside of Wes Welker ). He won with a great defense from 2000-2005, he won with a mediocre defense from 2005-2008, he won with a bad defense in 2010 and he's winning again behind a mediocre defense...again. He wins, we get it. 

The X-factor in this game might be Ray Lewis to the naked eye. But it comes down to two things, will Joe Flacco perform like he did in Denver and how much will the absence of Rob Gronkowski slow down the Patriots offense? In my opinion, Flacco will outshine his performance against the Broncos, making more plays and playing more brilliantly. And Gronkowski's injury will exploit the Patriot's offense as much as it did agains the Giants in last season's Super Bowl, which as we all know, equates to a New England loss. Wishful thinking? I honestly don't think so this time, I've learned how to believe in a team that believes.

NFC Championship Game

No. 2 San Francisco 49ers @ No. 1 Atlanta Falcons

3:00 p.m. ET, FOX

Pat's Pick: 49ers 27, Falcons 31

The world thought it was not safe to bet against Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs, but Aaron Rodgers can only do so much in terms of what the opposing quarterback does. Colin Kaepernick played like a ten year veteran with rings on both fingers last weekend against the Packers. Kaepernick is confident and gutsy, but he is also smart and reliable. He can kill you through the air, but more impressively, he can embarrass you on the ground, breaking the rookie rushing mark for a quarterback in the playoffs with his 181 yards (for the record, Mike Vick set that record). He chucked apart a bad defense, now he gets a tough defense in Atlanta. This is completely different.

The Falcons were tough at home this season, and we all defended that despite picking Seattle to win last week. "Atlanta is tough at home, but Seattle is hot and looked good last week", said everyone outside of Georgia last week. So isn't this the same case? San Fran looked great last week and Atlanta is tough at home, so why do so many people still think that the Falcons will lay over and die against the Niners?

The sexiness of a Harbaugh Super Bowl is something that reared its head last year when both the 49ers and Ravens were in their respective conference championships as is the case this year. Neither team won last season. One wins this year, but it is not the team from the Bay City. The difference in this game is going to come down to who is at quarterback.

Despite pouring my heart all over Colin Kaepernick in that opening paragraph, I think the reason San Francisco loses this game is because of that very guy. Kaepernick will be plagued by turnovers and inconsistency in his first conference championship, of his career, something that has happened to many quarterbacks in the past. It is something that will not happen to Matty Ice, who despite not being "lights out" in his win over Seattle, he did win. His team won. He now has confidence from getting that first playoff win off his back and it will show on Sunday. The Falcons are a complete team with guys who want this win, like tight end Tony Gonzalez, who got his first playoff win of his career last week. Atlanta is destined for their first Super Bowl since 1999. 

You had to see this one coming.