AFC Playoff Mirage

It's December, which means its time to take a stab at the AFC playoff picture and complain about the Ravens.

While the story behind this 2012 season a few weeks ago was the widespread parity in the league, heading into Sunday's schedule of games, the playoffs seemed pretty settled in both leagues outside of the final wild card berth and the NFC East (I'm looking at you, Eli). After Sunday's barrage of upsets and surprises, and post-Monday night's matchup between the Giants and RG3, the playoff race is now at least a little more interesting and exciting over the final four weeks of the season. While I thought the last four weeks of the season would drag on like Dick Clark as the host of the New Year's Rockin Eve, we can actually now anticipate some pretty exciting games and some up-in-the-air postseason slots.



I could take you through the marquee games from the final four weeks and analyze each one, but I don't want to do the same boring thing Eric Mangini will be doing on ESPN this week. So, instead, I will do that myself and show y'all my predicted AFC playoff teams (I might do the NFC at some point, I might not. Here's a condensed look: take the Packers) and give you my way-to-early playoff preview. I think I'm an inspired for this article because of how furious I am about the Ravens game last night, which needs to be addressed first.

The Ravens shit on their chances of home field advantage last night by blowing a second half ten point lead, oh, AT HOME! TO CHARLIE BATCH! The scene of Charlie Batch balling his eyes out in Ben Roethlisberger's arms will forever be etched in my memory now. Charlie Batch hadn't thrown a touchdown pass since 2010 and the Ravens hadn't lost at home since 2010, so I guess I'm not surprised this happened, especially since Jim Nantz shoved both those facts down our throats during the game yesterday. Baltimore is now 9-3, holds just a two game lead in the AFC North as opposed to a three game lead and four over Pittsburgh, and also is now technically three back from Houston for that number one seed since the Texans embarrassed Baltimore earlier this season. I've never seen a shittier display of anything when it comes to the play calling, and I've seen my fair share of TBS shitty comedies. Joe Flacco seemed to throw a 50 yard bomb yesterday more often than Elf will be on TV for the next three weeks. I'm not sure if they were trying to catch Pittsburgh off guard constantly or if JoeCool was excited that it's December now, but the play calling was sloppy and ridiculous, and i hate Charlie Batch. The end.

Anyway, let's start so I can get more Ravens blunders off my chest. The following teams are already on the outside, and staying there: Kansas City (who by the way, should not have been forced to play their game just a day after Jovan Belcher took his life and his girlfriends. The whole situation is a true tragedy, and God forbid Roger Goodell takes a hit to his pockets for the better good of a team and society.), Jacksonville (although Cecil Shorts may have saved my fantasy season. Percy Harvin went down, so I picked Shorts up and he has posted 20-plus points for me for three straight weeks. I've won all three and am now comfortably in first place at 10-3), Oakland (Carson Palmer will not be the Raiders quarterback next season. I have an itch that he's going to be somewhere else, if for no other reason, because Oakland sucks at making decisions. I see Palmer fitting in well in Philly, ehh??/ ;) ;)), Tennessee (the Titans surprised us for a little bit in the beginning of the season, but honestly I could probably walk on and start for that defense. Have I mentioned that I played cornerback in high school?), San Diego (San Diego's Christmas present this year is going to be no more Norv Turner), Cleveland (the Brownies are 4-3 since their 0-5 start, but they are too far back to make a serious playoff push. Kudos to beating Pittsburgh though, that was fun!), Buffalo (CJ Spiller has had an exciting year, but the fact that the Bills had a Thursday night game has bothered me enough to put them in the "already done" category. Take that Buffalo, take that Cee Lo!), and the Jets (I know they own a tiebreaker over Miami, and I'm keeping Miami alive for now for some reason, but the Jets absolutely suck and should be much worse than their record shows. I hope Mark Sanchez is cut, but at the same time I don't because I love watching him ruin this team). Those teams have packed their bags for the 2012 season, but the following teams still have hope but ultimately will be watching the playoffs from their homes this season. 

 Miami Dolphins (projected record: 8-8): I see Miami upsetting San Francisco this week. I just do. Colin Kaepernick has now experienced defeat and we need to see how he will respond to it. My gut instincts just tell me that this Dolphins team is not done. They will utlimately not make the playoffs, as I don't see them beating New England in Foxboro ni Week 17, and they have too much ground to make up at 5-7, but they have surprised us all season behind rookie Ryan Tannehill. Why aren't more people at least talking about him in the Rookie of the Year award race? 

Cincinnati Bengals (projected record: 8-8): The Bengals are a good team that have somehow made it to a 7-5 record at this point who also find themselves with a pretty tough remaining four games. They host Dallas, fly to a surrendered Philadelphia team, and end the year with a trip to Pittsburgh and a home game against Baltimore. They beat the Eagles and lost the rest. The offense is pretty good, they can score points behind fantasy stud Andy Dalton and equal fantasy stud AJ Green. However, the schedule is too tough and they lack a running game or defense to be able to compete with Pittsburgh or Baltimore. 

All right, so that means the AFC playoffs seeding will look as follows:
6) Pittsburgh Steelers (projected record: 10-6): It seems as though Pittsburgh will probably overcome losing Ben Roethlisberger for at least three weeks, relying on a running game that was as often awful and banged up as Kerry Wood and a defense that is older that was more surprisingly together than Lindsay Lohan and Charlie Sheen. The Steelers may even be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs, a dangerous six seed that will have Big Ben back and a bend but don't break defense that is championship-caliber. I'd say the only thing that's stopping them from a playoff push is Charlie Batch, but he'd either accidentally run over Ray Rice on his way home or I'll have nightmares of Charlie Batch calling me his son. I'm not risking either of them.

5) Indianapolis Colts (projected record: 11-5): The Andrew Luck Era has begun a year earlier than expected. I have nothing but good things to talk about how the Colts have bounced back this season, while starting mostly rookies and Reggie Wayne. That is not even mentioning the strength this team has shown behind their exceptional leader in Chuck Pagano through his battle with cancer. The Colts are easy to root for this season for multiple reasons, but are they really as impressive as the record shows? When looking at their schedule, their most significant win is against Green Bay, back when the Packers couldn't figure out why they were good. Other than that? Minnesota was a good win, I guess, but they have played a riduclously easy schedule, minus Chicago and New England. The Colts lost both of those games, by a total score of 100-45.

4) Denver Broncos (projected record: 12-4): I'd have Denver higher here, but I really do think they lose to Baltimore in Week 15. I also feel dirty about having the Broncos at 13-3, even though Jake Plummer took a ragtag Broncos team to that very record in 2005. No he really did, check it out. Anyway, if Peyton Manning isn't your pick for MVP this season, I'd like to know who is. Adrian Peterson because he came back from injury, you say? Oh, so did Peyton. Tom Brady because he's Tom Brady and he's putting up massive numbers with a less than great surrounding cast? Oh, so is Peyton, and he's Peyton Manning. Aaron Rodgers because he's elevated from the football scene and is on every other commercial on TV? Oh, so did Peyton. Vince Young because he owns his own restaurant? Oh, so does Peyton. 

3) Baltimore Ravens (projected record: 12-4): Baltimore has won some pretty ugly games this season. Like some really ugly games. They've won some games against good teams in ugly ways- they beat the Patriots by 1 on a controversial game winning field goal, they beat Pittsburgh with a Byron Leftwich who couldn't throw farther than Chad Pennington and who was also as banged up as Chad Pennington, and an Oakland Raiders team that only allowed 55 points to them. I don't want to say the Ravens are a lucky 9-3, but they sure as hell are. They lost one to Washington that wakes them up, than they go on that run of impressive wins they have been capable of at least once a year since Joe Cool came to town. They miss out on the 2 seed because NFL tiebreakers are more confusing than a middle school dance. I'm pretty sure the sixth step of a three team tie is to have all the players involved watch marathons of Burn Notice and see who lasts the longest. 

2) New England Patriots (projected record: 12-4): The Patriots were once 3-3, they are now 9-3 and have blown teams out and won close divisional games. Any surprise? The Pats hiccup to the 49ers on NBC in two weeks after a big win over Houston on Monday Night this week, and end the season absolutely destroying Jacksonville and Miami en route to a first round bye. 

1) Houston Texans (projected record: 13-3): I think a lot of people are waiting for this team to come back to earth and lose games. They're 11-1! Why are people surprised?! This is a team that overcame the Matt Schaub injury last season, and possibly more devastatingly the Matt Leinart injury, and almost upset Baltimore, IN BALTIMIORE, behind TJ Yates in the franchise's first playoff game last season. Why do people still count them out? I believe in this team, but I think they lose to New England on Monday Night when Schaub has a rare bad game in the turnover department, and I see them losing one to Indy. Whoever scheduled these two teams to not play each other until two of the last three weeks of the season, is actually a genius. 

So we have the playoff games set. Now, let's see how those games will turn out. Of course, if you're a betting man, take every team I count out. Trust me.

6 Pittsburgh @ 3 Baltimore, Ravens win
This is a wild card match-up the league wants. This is the hottest rivalry in the NFL today, and when these two teams meet in the playoffs, the result is anything but boring. Ugly, hard-fought and brutal, but not boring. Baltimore has had recent success against Pittsburgh, but have yet to beat them when  it counts recently. This year is different, Baltimore might have coughed up a big game that would have basically clinched them the AFC North as early as Week 12 at home with a ten point lead at halftime against a scrub who couldn't be a starting quarterback on his created Madden team (I swear I'm not bitter), but they have Pittsburgh's number. Joe Cool said it best after the game, he said they thought they could score 30 or 40 points against them. They came out firing and did not stop when it wasn't working. If I had a freakin dime for every time I blamed a loss on the play calling, you better believe I'd have a bathtub of freakin dimes.

5 Indianapolis @ 4 Denver, Broncos win
This is another wild card game the league wants, as Indianapolis Post-Manning visits Peyton Manning in the postseason. Manning's predecessor has carried his Colts to an impressive 8-4 record thus far, and Manning has returned from neck surgery and more than fit in comfortably with a 9-3 Broncos team. This game would be so exciting, not only for that storyline, but also because of the high profile offenses. Eric Decker and Reggie Wayne are two of the most exciting playmakers in football. In the end, though, the old guy still has it and Luck probably makes a mistake or two. This is a close game, but Peyton Manning is too good this season to lose to a rookie. 

4 Denver @ 1 Houston, Broncos win
I know I just got done ooooohing and ahhhhhhhing all over Matt Schaub and Gary Kubiak, but this is literally the only draw I see Houston losing in the playoffs. They beat New England, they beat Baltimore, they beat anyone but Denver and Peyton Manning. Schaub couldn't beat Manning when he was a Colt, and as much as I really think this team is the best in football, I don't think Schaub is mentally tough enough to outduel Manning in his first playoff game while Manning is more experienced than John Balaris and hookers when it comes to the postseason. 

3 Baltimore @ 2 New England, Ravens win
In a rematch from last season's AFC Championship Game and from their Week 3 meeting earlier this season, the Ravens take the rubber match. Joe Flacco knows how to get things done in the postseason and he is ready to get to his third championship game in five seasons. I don't feel like looking that stat up, but I'd bet my new "Hey diddle, diddle..Ray Rice up the middle" t-shirt that its never happened. The game last season was up in the air because of great play, and New England came out on top because of Billy Cundiff. The game this season was up in the air because of the replacement refs, and Baltimore came out on top because they had the ball last. That's how this game will end, minus the B-league officials, and I really think the window is closing for both of these teams, but its closing a hell of a lot quicker for New England. The Ravens are young and explosive everywhere but the Ray Lewis/Ed Reed area. That's the difference here, plus Joe Cool has outdueled the Tom in both of those meetings, I see no reason that can't happen a third time.

AFC Championship Game- 4 Denver @ 3 Baltimore, Ravens win
I can't believe this is happening. I should not predict this. This should not be happening, but I am predicting the Ravens to make the Super Bowl. This is crazy. 

But I believe it will happen. And I am throwing my bias out the window. Ya see, this is the first year the Ravens are not expected to win. Not that they have been odds-on favorites for the past four or five years, but they have marched into the playoffs either relatively hot or boasting the "run the ball, stop the run" mentality that used to work in the playoffs. This year, they don't run the ball, Ray Rice carried the ball as many times as my Uncle Tom did in the fourth quarter, they don't stop the run that well either (although they have gotten better at that and can only get better once Ray Lewis comes back in Week 15, I hope). No one is giving them any credit, despite them being 9-3. Baltimore will be under the radar, playing at home, against Peyton Manning.

The Ravens can not beat Peyton Manning, especially in the playoffs. However, they have been able to contain him. In 2006, when the Ravens were 13-3 behind Steve McNair (rest in peace), they held a Colts offense to 15 points on five field goals, which meant they held a Peyton Manning to zero touchdowns when that was his MO that season. The Colts made plays around Manning, the Broncos will not. 


So, there it is. The AFC playoff picture is clear for you now. One thing I wanted to get off my chest though before this guy is over, is it bad that I'm kind of rooting for the Redskins to make noise and a playoff run? I mean, I am an Eagles fan wayyyy after a Ravens fan since I am a Philly guy, so that already makes it dirty, but the Ravens need to beat the Skins this week. I don't know, I'll be okay I guess.